Latest Views

June 2017

 

The Philippine economy is expected to record a stronger growth in H1 and hit a 7% (or higher) full-year growth as robust investment spending continues and foreign direct investments perks up. Higher peso equivalent of the remittances and the slower inflation upticks should encourage more consumption. NG’s promise to accelerate infrastructure spending should shore up domestic demand. Moreover, the improved external demand should be a positive catalyst to GDP growth.

May 2017

The economy is expected to achieve 7% or higher GDP growth in Q1 as solid recovery of agriculture (+4% to 5%) and double-digit expansion of exports add the needed boost for GDP to hit 7% or higher. Capital goods imports and construction spending should continue to lead robust investment spending. Continued vitality of manufacturing sector and consumer spending should shore up domestic demand. Inflation will likely remain around 3.4% to 3.5% until Q3, well within the BSP’s target range, due to falling food and crude oil prices.

April 2017

 

The current account’s positive balance should hold with OFW remittances enough to cover balance of trade deficits. The economy should expand by 6.5% to 7% in Q1-2017 with exports providing the new boost to robust domestic demand. Strong consumer spending and sustained manufacturing sector activity will continue to propel domestic demand, bolstered by OFW remittances. Inflation should stabilize at 3.5% up to Q3, thanks to easing food prices and crude oil prices, reeling from abundant supply and more oil from shale.

 

 

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Vol. 3 No. 7

July 31, 2015

 

SSI Group, Inc. (SSI) posted net income of PHP267.03mn in 1Q15, ahead of this year's profit guidance of 23%-25% net income growth to PHP1.23bn-1.25bn. It is ahead of target as the second semester usually accounts for the bulk of full year net income as seen in the two previous years: 61% and 60% of full year net profits of 2013 and 2014, respectively, were realized in the 2nd half. If the latter percentages were to indicate the annual business seasonality, net profit growth could turn out 34% higher this year to Php1.34bn versus yearago, also exceeding the consensus estimate of PHP1.29bn (29% growth). Read More

Vol. 3 No. 6

June 30, 2015

 

The power crisis didn't happen last summer in Luzon despite the 1-month Malampaya shutdown last March-April. (Malampaya is a key fuel source, natural gas, for the Lopez-owned 1,500MW and 1,200MW Kepco Ilijan of San Miguel, comprising a third of Luzon's dependable capacity of about 8,000MW). Still, a power shortage may happen next year as power demand on a national basis outstrips supply, both growing at an average yearly rate 5.7% vs. 5.3% until 2020, respectively. Read More

Vol. 3 No. 5

May 31, 2015

 

The real estate industry grew 15.2% last 1Q2015 (GDP accounting) despite BSP's tightening regulations: 1) Real Estate Stress Test and 2) lower loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. This was matched by the 13.6% year-to-March returns in the Philippine Property Index. This was faster than 1Q2014's 11.7% and FY 2014 9.6% growth. Read More

Vol. 3 No. 4

April 30, 2015

 

Based on total aggregate earnings in 2014 versus year ago, the companies in the PSEi yielded growth of 13%. Summing up the core EPS of PSEi members and comparing 2014 vs 2013 numbers, the growth is 14%. These numbers were better than the Bloomberg estimate of 11% last year. Read More

 

 

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Crown Asia Chemicals Corp. gets into high-tech pipes

August 10, 2015

 

After throwing in the towel on what in the early nineties was a sunset industry -- timber and wood processing -- Crown Asia Chemicals' luck turned the corner when it switched to chemical compounding and plastic tube pipe (polyvinyl chloride - PVC) manufacturing. Geared to the construction business, Crown's major products - PVC and plastics-based chemicals, produced net profits that may be small until last year, growth of 30% to Php65m, but enough inspiration for the company's getting into high-tech pipe manufacturing and bagging some PVC supply contracts for PPP projects like the NAIA Expressway and with a still undisclosed housing developer. Its most recent breakthrough was unlikely of a small family-owned company: doing an IPO. Read More

PSEi fell on fifth week of net foreign selling

August 7, 2015

 

PSEi fell 0.23% to 7,532.52 last week despite slowing inflation as foreign selling continued to weigh in. The market continued to register net foreign outflows for the past five weeks for an aggregate amount of Php8.71bn (July 6-Aug 7). Also, the market recorded fourteen weeks of net foreign selling out of fifteen since April 27. Last week the market recorded a net foreign selling of Php319mn. Inflation in July was at 0.8%, the lowest in twenty years. This brought year-to-date inflation to 1.9%. Read More

Short-term yields fell on inflation outlook

August 7, 2015

 

ST yields fell due to lower bid rate at auction and favorable July inflation figure (@ 0.8% vs June @ 1.2%). Trading volume (Php19.2bn, +11% w-o-w) continue to improve as domestic catalysts started to drive yields and volume. Yields of liquid ISINs fell ahead of the bond swap program. Read More

 

 

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