Latest Views

January 2020

 

We foresee renewed fast growth of 6.2% to 6.6% for the Philippine economy in 2020 as Q4-2019 GDP growth accelerated to 6.4% from 6% a quarter ago. The faster pace will likely spill over to the entire 2020 with similar drivers as in Q4-2019—NG operational and capital spending as well as solid consumer spending given the robust job gains in in the last three quarters of 2019. With NG P4.1-T budget already approved, infrastructure spending may soar by 34.6% as planned. Bond markets look attractive in H1 while the equities market will deliver once the fears of a global pandemic from coronavirus fade. However, a much stronger eruption of Taal volcano and prolonged spread of the novel corona virus could slow the economy slightly, but negative investor sentiment from it may delay PSEi’s recovery.

December 2019

 

The overall outlook has turned rosier. At the macro level, huge employment gains in 2019 and the rapid decline in poverty rates from 2015 to 2018, plus low inflation rates (well within targets), renewed vigor in infrastructure spending, and robust OFW remittances should spur above-average consumer spending growth. Meanwhile, bond investors took a more cautious stance in November which showed tenders in auctions and volumes in secondary markets tumble, albeit with little effect on yields. The equity market proved resilient to the foreign selling (due to MSCI-EM rebalancing) and a more solid, consolidated base should provide a good springboard for PSEi’s upward thrust in 2020.

November 2019

 

Vindicated for our view of a strong economic recovery starting H2, we see it at even a faster pace in Q4 and into 2020 than the 6.2% GDP growth recorded in Q3-2019. Lowest poverty rates (SWS) and low inflation should keep consumer spending at a quickened pace. Infrastructure spending will benefit not only from the 34.5% jump in NG budget for it but also from reactivation of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) into the Build, Build, Build (BBB) program of the administration. Resulting muscular domestic demand should offset external demand weakness, if any.

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

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 REITs have arrived  

REITs Have Arrived

February 10, 2020

 

The Philippine REIT Law’s IRR has the following incentives: reduced or 33% minimum public ownership requirement from 67%; proceeds to be be reinvested in Philippine property or infrastructure within one year; 12% VAT on the transfer of assets to the REIT has been removed, zeroed out; zero tax on REIT company upon dividend declaration of at least 90% of income but rest of income subject to existing corporate income tax; and dividends accruing to corporate investors are tax-exempt while individual investors will be taxed the existing 10% on dividend income.

January Inflation

Inflation Surprise

February 5, 2020

 

Will the BSP cut or pause? It’s a surprise and cuts the odds of a BSP rate cut. Will the market sell today? Not necessarily as Asian markets are up and even the US. But what’s the month-on-month (MOM) inflation rate?

Worse than SARs

Worse than SARs?

February 4, 2020

 

China’s economy is bigger and weaker than during SARS in 2002-2003. The virus outbreak is already adversely affecting supply chains and commodities markets. It is denting growth prospects in SEA, even South America..

   

 

 

 

 

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