• Investors are signaling the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just twice this year, starting in September, after a fresh round of hot inflation sent Treasury yields soaring to 2024 highs.
  • Yields across most of the maturity spectrum were higher by around 20 basis points in late afternoon trading, with the policy-sensitive two-year note up by nearly 23 basis points to 4.97%. The benchmark 10-year note’s yield topped 4.5% for the first time since November.
  • The Treasury yield increases were the biggest in months. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note surged Wednesday by as much as 20 basis points to 4.56%. Wellington’s Goodman expects it to stay in a range of 4.5% to 4.75% as long as inflation lingers near 3%.
  • Yields on five-year Treasuries briefly exceeded those on 30-year bonds for the first time since September.