• All but five of 102 economists in the Dec. 1-6 Reuters poll said the Fed was done hiking in this cycle, even though Chair Jerome Powell said last week policymakers were “prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so”.
  • Economists are less convinced the Fed will start cutting so soon, with slightly more than half, 52 of 102, forecasting no rate cuts until at least July. Nearly three-quarters of forecasters, 72 of 102, predicted 100 basis points of cuts or less next year.
  • The proportion of Fed watchers expecting a cut sometime in the first six months of the year is moving in the opposite direction to markets and has steadily dropped in recent months from more than 70% in September.